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International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies

03 Jun 2026 18:45 UTC

LUXEMBOURG vs ITALY

Final 0:1

Italy won Last goal: Italy

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Francesco Pio Esposito — Italy

Model predictions were

35%

1X2

Draw

Result: Italy

45%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

68%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

48%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under

48%

Total 3.5

Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under

76%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 58 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 316 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 246 completed matches.

1X2 31% (Weak)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 58% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 61% (Good)

Total 4.5 77% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

1X2 0% (Weak)

Both teams to score 0% (Weak)

Total 1.5 0% (Weak)

Total 2.5 0% (Weak)

Total 3.5 0% (Weak)

Total 4.5 0% (Weak)

Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 31% (Weak)

58 predictions

Both teams to score 40% (Weak)

124 predictions

Total 1.5 68% (Strong)

193 predictions

Total 2.5 45% (Average)

113 predictions

Total 3.5 29% (Weak)

52 predictions

Total 4.5 83% (Strong)

223 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Luxembourg vs Italy after full time. The match ended 0-1 in International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies. The model leaned toward Draw with a weak indicator (35.2%).

The final result did not match the primary prediction. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 76.8% of matches across a sample of 246 games. Team-level data remains useful for understanding style and chance creation across comparable fixtures.

Market-level signals were less accurate than expected in this specific match profile. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (67.7%) came in as a moderate expectation and did not land. Over 2.5 goals (47.8%) did not match the outcome, both teams to score (45.3%) fell short of the result.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

LUXEMBOURG vs ITALY

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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