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International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies

03 Jun 2026 18:45 UTC

NETHERLANDS vs ALGERIA

Final 0:1

Algeria won Last goal: Algeria

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Anis Hadj Moussa — Algeria

Model predictions were

44%

1X2

Netherlands

Result: Algeria

41%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

82%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under

45%

Total 3.5

Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under

45%

Total 4.5

Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under

17%

Score

3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 59 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 316 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 246 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 58% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 61% (Good)

Total 4.5 77% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)

Both teams to score 50% (Average)

Total 1.5 67% (Strong)

Total 2.5 50% (Average)

Total 3.5 67% (Strong)

Total 4.5 67% (Strong)

Score 17% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)

188 predictions

Both teams to score 40% (Weak)

124 predictions

Total 1.5 68% (Strong)

193 predictions

Total 2.5 45% (Average)

113 predictions

Total 3.5 29% (Weak)

52 predictions

Total 4.5 13% (Weak)

23 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Netherlands vs Algeria after full time. The match ended 0-1 in International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies. Pre-match projections pointed to Netherlands with a marginal edge at 43.6%.

The model’s main outcome call did not land. Market-level signals were less accurate than expected in this specific match profile. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (82.1%) appeared as a strong signal and did not land.

Over 2.5 goals (45.4%) did not match the outcome, both teams to score (41.1%) did not match the outcome. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 76.8% of matches across a sample of 246 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 50% in a sample of 6 team involvements.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

NETHERLANDS vs ALGERIA

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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