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International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies

31 May 2026 19:30 UTC

USA vs SENEGAL

Final 3:2

USA won Last goal: USA

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Sergiño Dest — USA
⚽ Christian Pulisic — USA
⚽ Sadio Mané — Senegal

2nd half

⚽ Sadio Mané — Senegal
⚽ Folarin Balogun — USA

Model predictions were

35%

1X2

Draw

Result: USA

41%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

82%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

41%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over

64%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over

81%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over

Score

1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 54 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 223 completed matches.

1X2 31% (Weak)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 57% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 62% (Good)

Total 4.5 78% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 13 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 31% (Weak)

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

Total 1.5 69% (Strong)

Total 2.5 38% (Weak)

Total 3.5 62% (Good)

Total 4.5 69% (Strong)

Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 31% (Weak)

54 predictions

Both teams to score 39% (Weak)

107 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

173 predictions

Total 2.5 52% (Average)

124 predictions

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

175 predictions

Total 4.5 84% (Strong)

203 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for USA vs Senegal. The match ended 3-2 in International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies. The model leaned toward Draw with a low-confidence projection (35.2%).

The main outcome missed, but several market signals were accurate. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 77.6% of matches across a sample of 223 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 46.2% in a sample of 13 team involvements.

Several market indicators held up, while others were not confirmed by the match result. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (82.1%) came in as a strong signal and held up in the final outcome. Over 2.5 goals (41.1%) came in as a marginal edge and did not land.

Both teams to score (41.1%) held up in the final outcome. Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

USA vs SENEGAL

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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