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International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies

31 May 2026 18:45 UTC

GERMANY vs FINLAND

Final 4:0

Germany won Last goal: Germany

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Deniz Undav — Germany

2nd half

⚽ Florian Wirtz — Germany
⚽ Deniz Undav — Germany
⚽ Jamal Musiala — Germany

Model predictions were

48%

1X2

Germany

Result: Germany

47%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

82%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

41%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over

78%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over

81%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

17%

Score

2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 63% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 38 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 223 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 57% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 62% (Good)

Total 4.5 78% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)

Both teams to score 50% (Average)

Total 1.5 83% (Strong)

Total 2.5 83% (Strong)

Total 3.5 67% (Strong)

Total 4.5 67% (Strong)

Score 17% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)

169 predictions

Both teams to score 56% (Good)

116 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

173 predictions

Total 2.5 52% (Average)

124 predictions

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

175 predictions

Total 4.5 84% (Strong)

203 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Germany vs Finland after full time. The match ended 4-0 in International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies. Pre-match projections pointed to Germany with a low-confidence projection at 48.4%.

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 77.6% of matches across a sample of 223 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 50% in a sample of 6 team involvements.

Several market indicators held up, while others were not confirmed by the match result. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (82.1%) came in as a clear statistical edge and was confirmed by the match. Over 2.5 goals (41.1%) did not land, both teams to score (46.5%) aligned with the result.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

GERMANY vs FINLAND

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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