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International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies

31 May 2026 10:25 UTC

JAPAN vs ICELAND

Final 1:0

Japan won Last goal: Japan

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Koki Ogawa — Japan

Model predictions were

44%

1X2

Japan

Result: Japan

41%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

82%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

48%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under

78%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

81%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 51% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 53 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 223 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 57% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 62% (Good)

Total 4.5 78% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 11 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 45% (Average)

Both teams to score 55% (Average)

Total 1.5 73% (Strong)

Total 2.5 64% (Good)

Total 3.5 64% (Good)

Total 4.5 64% (Good)

Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)

169 predictions

Both teams to score 39% (Weak)

107 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

173 predictions

Total 2.5 42% (Weak)

99 predictions

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

175 predictions

Total 4.5 84% (Strong)

203 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for Japan vs Iceland. The match ended 1-0 in International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies. Pre-match projections pointed to Japan with a weak indicator at 43.6%.

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. Most market calls were not confirmed by the final result in this fixture. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (82.1%) was identified as a strong signal and fell short of the result.

Over 2.5 goals (47.8%) was not confirmed, both teams to score (41.1%) did not land. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 77.6% of matches across a sample of 223 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 54.6% in a sample of 11 team involvements.

Even when the main prediction misses, underlying data can still highlight key match patterns. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.

JAPAN vs ICELAND

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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