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USA · Major League Soccer

23 May 2026 23:30 UTC

DC UNITED vs CF MONTREAL

Final 4:4

Draw Last goal: CF Montreal

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Louis Munteanu — DC United
  2. ⚽ Jared Stroud — DC United
  3. ⚽ Prince Owusu — CF Montreal

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Tai Baribo (penalty) — DC United
  2. ⚽ Prince Owusu · assist Wiki Carmona — CF Montreal
  3. ⚽ Lucas Bartlett · assist Keisuke Kurokawa — DC United
  4. ⚽ Prince Owusu (penalty) — CF Montreal
  5. ⚽ Hennadii Synchuk · assist Prince Owusu — CF Montreal

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
39%
1X2
DC United
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 45% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 147 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 501 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 423 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 50 past matches

1X2 28% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
331 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
287 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
365 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
279 predictions
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
265 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
342 predictions

Match overview