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USA · Major League Soccer

23 May 2026 23:30 UTC

FC CINCINNATI vs ORLANDO CITY

Final 6:2

FC Cincinnati won Last goal: FC Cincinnati

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Martín Ojeda (penalty) — Orlando City
  2. ⚽ Kenji Mboma Dem · assist Evander — FC Cincinnati
  3. ⚽ Evander · assist Pavel Bucha — FC Cincinnati

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Martín Ojeda — Orlando City
  2. ⚽ Kenji Mboma Dem · assist Evander — FC Cincinnati
  3. ⚽ Evander · assist Matt Miazga — FC Cincinnati
  4. ⚽ Kévin Denkey · assist Evander — FC Cincinnati
  5. ⚽ Tom Barlow · assist Ender Echenique — FC Cincinnati

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: FC Cincinnati
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 6:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 27% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 147 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 501 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 423 completed matches.

1X2 26% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 56 past matches

1X2 27% (Weak)
Both teams to score 66% (Strong)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 48% (Average)
Score 2% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 26% (Weak)
92 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
287 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
365 predictions
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
144 predictions
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
265 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
342 predictions

Match overview