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Azerbaijan · Premier League

22 May 2026 15:30 UTC

SUMQAYIT vs QARABAG FK

Final 3:4

Qarabag FK won Last goal: Sumqayit

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ramil Sheydayev — Qarabag FK
  2. ⚽ Emmanuel Addai — Qarabag FK

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sabuhi Abdullazada — Sumqayit
  2. ⚽ Ramil Sheydayev — Qarabag FK
  3. ⚽ Nihad Ahmadzada — Sumqayit
  4. ⚽ Oleksii Kashchuk — Qarabag FK
  5. ⚽ — — Sumqayit

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Qarabag FK
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 62 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 194 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 192 completed matches.

1X2 28% (Weak)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 62 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 65% (Good)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 28% (Weak)
53 predictions
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
98 predictions
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
136 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
107 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
151 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
178 predictions

Match overview