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Honduras · Liga Nacional · Clausura Final Stage

22 May 2026 02:00 UTC

CD MARATHON vs FC MOTAGUA

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: CD Marathon

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ John Kleber (penalty) — FC Motagua
  2. ⚽ Brian Farioli — CD Marathon

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
CD Marathon
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 55% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 38 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 232 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 206 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 79 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Weak)
156 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
97 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
155 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
97 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
157 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
186 predictions

Match overview