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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

20 May 2026 19:00 UTC

FREIBURG vs ASTON VILLA

Final 0:3

Top match Aston Villa won Last goal: Aston Villa

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Youri Tielemans · assist Morgan Rogers — Aston Villa
  2. ⚽ Emiliano Buendía · assist John McGinn — Aston Villa

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Morgan Rogers · assist Emiliano Buendía — Aston Villa

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Aston Villa
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 14% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 49 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 188 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 182 completed matches.

1X2 14% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 27 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 14% (Weak)
44 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
103 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
148 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
84 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
130 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
159 predictions

Match overview