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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

16 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs FC PORTO

Final 1:0

Nottingham Forest won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. 🟥 Jan Bednarek — FC Porto
  2. ⚽ Morgan Gibbs-White — Nottingham Forest

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
44%
1X2
FC Porto
90-minute result: Nottingham Forest
Lucky hit
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
45%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 100% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-4; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 2 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 180 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 175 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 21 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
133 predictions
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
78 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
141 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
92 predictions
Total 3.5 25% (Weak)
48 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
153 predictions

Match overview