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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

07 May 2026 19:00 UTC

ASTON VILLA vs NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Final 4:0

Top match Aston Villa won Last goal: Aston Villa

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ollie Watkins · assist Emiliano Buendía — Aston Villa

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Emiliano Buendía (penalty) — Aston Villa
  2. ⚽ John McGinn · assist Ollie Watkins — Aston Villa
  3. ⚽ John McGinn · assist Morgan Rogers — Aston Villa

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
46%
1X2
Nottingham Forest
90-minute result: Aston Villa
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 186 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 180 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 25 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 52% (Average)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)
136 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
101 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
146 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
96 predictions
Total 3.5 27% (Weak)
51 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
157 predictions

Match overview