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Austria · Bundesliga · Bundesliga Championship Group

17 May 2026 12:30 UTC

STURM GRAZ vs RAPID WIEN

Final 2:0

Sturm Graz won Last goal: Sturm Graz

Match timeline

1st half

  1. 🟥 Yusuf Demir (straight red) — Rapid Wien

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Gizo Mamageishvili — Sturm Graz
  2. ⚽ Stefan Hierländer — Sturm Graz

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Rapid Wien
90-minute result: Sturm Graz
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
12%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 45 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 188 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 185 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 58 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 12% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
137 predictions
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
116 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
152 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
108 predictions
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
129 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
158 predictions

Match overview