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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

05 May 2026 19:00 UTC

ARSENAL vs ATLETICO MADRID

Final 1:0

Top match Arsenal won Last goal: Arsenal

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bukayo Saka — Arsenal

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
44%
1X2
Atletico Madrid
90-minute result: Arsenal
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
52%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
20%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 41% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 34 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 187 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 183 completed matches.

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 25 past matches

1X2 52% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 68% (Strong)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 20% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 54% (Average)
145 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
113 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
159 predictions
Total 2.5 66% (Strong)
114 predictions
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
113 predictions
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
144 predictions

Match overview