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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

15 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

BAYERN MUNICH vs REAL MADRID

Final 4:3

Top match Bayern Munich won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Arda Güler — Real Madrid
  2. ⚽ Aleksandar Pavlovic — Bayern Munich
  3. ⚽ Arda Güler — Real Madrid
  4. ⚽ Harry Kane — Bayern Munich
  5. ⚽ Kylian Mbappé — Real Madrid

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Eduardo Camavinga — Real Madrid
  2. ⚽ Luis Díaz — Bayern Munich
  3. ⚽ Michael Olise — Bayern Munich
  4. 🟥 Arda Güler — Real Madrid

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
44%
1X2
Real Madrid
90-minute result: Bayern Munich
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
44%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
13%
Score
2:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 32 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 16% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 183 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 180 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 23 past matches

1X2 61% (Good)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 48% (Average)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Average)
143 predictions
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
111 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
157 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
113 predictions
Total 3.5 39% (Weak)
69 predictions
Total 4.5 21% (Weak)
38 predictions

Match overview