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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

14 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

ATLETICO MADRID vs BARCELONA

Final 1:2 Almanac Moment

Top match Barcelona won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Lamine Yamal — Barcelona
  2. ⚽ Ferran Torres — Barcelona
  3. ⚽ Ademola Lookman — Atletico Madrid

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Eric García — Barcelona

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
46%
1X2
Barcelona
90-minute result: Barcelona
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
52%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
9%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 31 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 181 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 178 completed matches.

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 46% (Average)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 23 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 70% (Strong)
Total 1.5 87% (Strong)
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
Total 4.5 57% (Good)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 54% (Average)
142 predictions
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
109 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
155 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
112 predictions
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
109 predictions
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
140 predictions

Match overview