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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

28 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN vs BAYERN MUNICH

Final 5:4

Top match Paris Saint-Germain won Last goal: Bayern Munich

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Harry Kane (penalty) — Bayern Munich
  2. ⚽ Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · assist Désiré Doué — Paris Saint-Germain
  3. ⚽ João Neves · assist Ousmane Dembélé — Paris Saint-Germain
  4. ⚽ Michael Olise · assist Aleksandar Pavlovic — Bayern Munich
  5. ⚽ Ousmane Dembélé (penalty) — Paris Saint-Germain

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · assist Achraf Hakimi — Paris Saint-Germain
  2. ⚽ Ousmane Dembélé · assist Désiré Doué — Paris Saint-Germain
  3. ⚽ Dayot Upamecano · assist Joshua Kimmich — Bayern Munich
  4. ⚽ Luis Díaz · assist Harry Kane — Bayern Munich

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

No surprise
29%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Paris Saint-Germain
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
12%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 20% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 41 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 185 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 181 completed matches.

1X2 22% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 25 past matches

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 92% (Strong)
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
Total 4.5 56% (Good)
Score 12% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 22% (Weak)
37 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
112 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
158 predictions
Total 2.5 31% (Weak)
67 predictions
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
111 predictions
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
142 predictions

Match overview