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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

29 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

ATLETICO MADRID vs ARSENAL

Final 1:1

Top match Draw Last goal: Atletico Madrid

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Viktor Gyökeres (penalty) — Arsenal

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Julián Alvarez (penalty) — Atletico Madrid

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
44%
1X2
Arsenal
90-minute result: Draw
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Off target
64%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
64%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
64%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
21%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 33 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 186 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 182 completed matches.

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 24 past matches

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 21% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 54% (Average)
144 predictions
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
69 predictions
Total 1.5 9% (Weak)
23 predictions
Total 2.5 31% (Weak)
68 predictions
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
112 predictions
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
143 predictions

Match overview