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Austria · Bundesliga · Bundesliga Championship Group

03 May 2026 15:00 UTC

SALZBURG vs STURM GRAZ

Final 1:1 Almanac Moment

Draw Last goal: Salzburg

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Yorbe Vertessen — Salzburg

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Axel Kayombo — Sturm Graz

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
16%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 56 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 175 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 172 completed matches.

1X2 30% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 55 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
Total 3.5 55% (Average)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 16% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 30% (Weak)
43 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
107 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
141 predictions
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
71 predictions
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
120 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
145 predictions

Match overview