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England · League Two

25 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

NEWPORT vs OLDHAM

Final 3:2

Top match Newport won Last goal: Newport

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bobby Kamwa · assist Harrison Biggins — Newport
  2. ⚽ Will Sutton · assist Ryan Woods — Oldham
  3. ⚽ Dynel Simeu — Oldham
  4. 🟥 Mike Fondop (straight red) — Oldham

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ben Lloyd — Newport
  2. ⚽ Bobby Kamwa · assist Ben Lloyd — Newport

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
Favorite
37%
1X2
Newport
90-minute result: Newport
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
8%
Score
4:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 18% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+4; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 517 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 516 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 85 past matches

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
370 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
228 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
405 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
258 predictions
Total 3.5 29% (Weak)
127 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
464 predictions

Match overview