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England · League Two

25 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

COLCHESTER vs NOTTS CO.

Final 0:1 Almanac Moment

Top match Notts Co. won Last goal: Notts Co.

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nick Tsaroulla · assist Tom Iorpenda — Notts Co.

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
Favorite
39%
1X2
Notts Co.
90-minute result: Notts Co.
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Lucky hit
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
9%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 112 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 517 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 516 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 85 past matches

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
370 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
228 predictions
Total 1.5 28% (Weak)
111 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
258 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
389 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
464 predictions

Match overview