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Finland · Veikkausliiga

24 Apr 2026 15:00 UTC

TPS vs IF GNISTAN

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: TPS

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Adeleke Akinyemi — IF Gnistan
  2. ⚽ Samuel Anini Jr. — TPS

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
TPS
90-minute result: Draw
No surprise
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
56%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
58%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 10 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 143 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 109 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 24 past matches

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
76 predictions
Both teams to score 31% (Weak)
26 predictions
Total 1.5 81% (Strong)
100 predictions
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
74 predictions
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
71 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
90 predictions

Match overview