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Italy · Serie A

19 Apr 2026 13:00 UTC

VERONA vs AC MILAN

Final 0:1

AC Milan won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Adrien Rabiot — AC Milan

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
35%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: AC Milan
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 96 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 325 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 323 completed matches.

1X2 26% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 61 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 26% (Weak)
78 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
147 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
246 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
198 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
274 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
300 predictions

Match overview