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Italy · Serie A

18 Apr 2026 18:45 UTC

ROMA vs ATALANTA

Final 1:1

Top match Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Nikola Krstovic — Atalanta
  2. ⚽ Mario Hermoso — Roma

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
44%
1X2
Roma
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
58%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
75%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 52% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 56 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 322 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 320 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
243 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
175 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
243 predictions
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
197 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
273 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
297 predictions

Match overview