← Back to matches

Italy · Serie A

17 Apr 2026 18:45 UTC

INTER vs CAGLIARI

Final 3:0

Top match Inter won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Marcus Thuram — Inter
  2. ⚽ Nicolò Barella — Inter
  3. ⚽ Piotr Zielinski — Inter

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
46%
1X2
Cagliari
90-minute result: Inter
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
75%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 45% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 62 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 320 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 318 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 62 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
241 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
143 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
241 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
121 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
272 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
295 predictions

Match overview