← Back to matches

Netherlands · KNVB Cup

14 Jan 2026 20:00 UTC

AZ ALKMAAR vs AJAX

Final 6:0

AZ Alkmaar won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Troy Parrott — AZ Alkmaar
  2. ⚽ Troy Parrott — AZ Alkmaar
  3. ⚽ Peer Koopmeiners — AZ Alkmaar

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Kees Smit — AZ Alkmaar
  2. 🟥 Owen Wijndal — Ajax
  3. ⚽ Troy Parrott — AZ Alkmaar
  4. ⚽ Ibrahim Sadiq — AZ Alkmaar

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
45%
1X2
Ajax
90-minute result: AZ Alkmaar
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
26%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
35%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
35%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 6:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 67% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 3 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 16% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 43 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 43 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 44% (Weak)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 2 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 0% (Weak)
Total 3.5 0% (Weak)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
31 predictions
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
17 predictions
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
35 predictions
Total 2.5 27% (Weak)
15 predictions
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
21 predictions
Total 4.5 47% (Average)
36 predictions

Match overview