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Lithuania · A Lyga

27 Jul 2026 15:45 UTC

HEGELMANN vs ZALGIRIS VILNIUS

Final 2:3

Zalgiris Vilnius won Last goal: Zalgiris Vilnius

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Dominykas Pasilys — Hegelmann
  2. ⚽ Liviu Antal (penalty) — Zalgiris Vilnius

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Wesley — Hegelmann
  2. ⚽ Nikola Petkovic (penalty) — Zalgiris Vilnius
  3. ⚽ Nikola Petkovic — Zalgiris Vilnius

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Hegelmann
90-minute result: Zalgiris Vilnius
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
18%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
6%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 55 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 216 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 258 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 98 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
179 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
131 predictions
Total 1.5 23% (Weak)
78 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Weak)
158 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
208 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
238 predictions

Match overview