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Bulgaria · A PFG · First Professional League

26 Jul 2026 18:15 UTC

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV vs SEPTEMVRI SOFIA

Final 2:1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv won Last goal: Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Julien Lamy — Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  2. ⚽ Aleksandar Dzhamov — Septemvri Sofia

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Kubrat Önasçi (own goal) — Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 105 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 299 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 377 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 93 past matches

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 55% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 36% (Weak)
105 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
186 predictions
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
268 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
230 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
308 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
355 predictions

Match overview