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USA · USL Championship

26 Jul 2026 02:00 UTC

MONTEREY BAY FC vs ORANGE COUNTY SC

Final 1:2

Orange County SC won Last goal: Monterey Bay FC

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Tom Brewitt — Orange County SC
  2. ⚽ Nicholas Gordon (own goal) — Orange County SC
  3. ⚽ Ilijah Paul — Monterey Bay FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Monterey Bay FC
90-minute result: Orange County SC
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 73 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 421 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 500 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 77 past matches

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 35% (Weak)
347 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
224 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
363 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
276 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
384 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
451 predictions

Match overview