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USA · USL Championship

25 Jul 2026 23:00 UTC

MIAMI FC vs TAMPA BAY ROWDIES

Final 2:3

Tampa Bay Rowdies won Last goal: Tampa Bay Rowdies

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Russell Cicerone — Tampa Bay Rowdies
  2. ⚽ MD Myers — Tampa Bay Rowdies
  3. ⚽ Arney Rocha (penalty) — Miami FC
  4. 🟥 Isaiah LeFlore (2nd yellow) — Tampa Bay Rowdies

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jürgen Locadia — Miami FC
  2. ⚽ Marco Micaletto — Tampa Bay Rowdies

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Miami FC
90-minute result: Tampa Bay Rowdies
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 41% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 17 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 416 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 500 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 78 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 35% (Weak)
347 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
224 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
363 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
224 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
384 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
451 predictions

Match overview