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USA · NWSL

25 Jul 2026 02:00 UTC

PORTLAND THORNS vs GOTHAM FC

Final 2:2 Almanac Moment

Draw Last goal: Gotham FC

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Midge Purce — Gotham FC
  2. ⚽ Renee Lyles — Portland Thorns

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jessie Fleming — Portland Thorns
  2. ⚽ Samantha Kerr — Gotham FC
  3. 🟥 Jayden Perry (straight red) — Portland Thorns

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
8%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 23% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 71 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 234 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 272 completed matches.

1X2 23% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 53 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 23% (Weak)
71 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
165 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
212 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
140 predictions
Total 3.5 28% (Weak)
68 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
243 predictions

Match overview