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Argentina · Liga Profesional · Clausura

24 Jul 2026 22:00 UTC

VELEZ SARSFIELD vs INSTITUTO

Final 1:0

Velez Sarsfield won Last goal: Velez Sarsfield

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Manuel Lanzini — Velez Sarsfield

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Instituto
90-minute result: Velez Sarsfield
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
As expected
59%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
2:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 32% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 484 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 572 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 49% (Average)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 73 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 42% (Weak)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 78% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)
386 predictions
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
233 predictions
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
337 predictions
Total 2.5 37% (Weak)
165 predictions
Total 3.5 16% (Weak)
62 predictions
Total 4.5 12% (Weak)
25 predictions

Match overview