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Europe · Europa League Qualification

23 Jul 2026 18:00 UTC

FC ST. GALLEN vs BENFICA

Final 2:1

FC St. Gallen won Last goal: FC St. Gallen

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Aliou Balde — FC St. Gallen
  2. ⚽ Rafa — Benfica

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Tom Gaal — FC St. Gallen

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
49%
1X2
Benfica
90-minute result: FC St. Gallen
Lucky hit
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
64%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 94 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 94 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 0% (Weak)
Total 1.5 0% (Weak)
Total 2.5 0% (Weak)
Total 3.5 0% (Weak)
Total 4.5 0% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
72 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
49 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
66 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
50 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
66 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
83 predictions

Match overview