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Europe · Europa League Qualification

23 Jul 2026 17:00 UTC

DYNAMO KYIV vs PAOK THESSALONIKI FC

Final 2:3

PAOK Thessaloniki FC won Last goal: Dynamo Kyiv

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Volodymyr Brazhko — Dynamo Kyiv
  2. ⚽ Giannis Konstantelias — PAOK Thessaloniki FC
  3. ⚽ Christos Zafeiris — PAOK Thessaloniki FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Baptiste Santamaría — PAOK Thessaloniki FC
  2. ⚽ Justin Lonwijk — Dynamo Kyiv

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
49%
1X2
Dynamo Kyiv
90-minute result: PAOK Thessaloniki FC
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
75%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
13%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 7 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 94 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 94 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 88% (Strong)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
Total 3.5 88% (Strong)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
72 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
45 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
66 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
44 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
66 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
83 predictions

Match overview