← Back to matches

Europe · Europa League Qualification

23 Jul 2026 18:00 UTC

BESIKTAS vs FC MIDTJYLLAND

Final 1:0

Besiktas won Last goal: Besiktas

Match timeline

1st half

  1. 🟥 Friday Etim (straight red) — FC Midtjylland
  2. ⚽ Orkun Kökçü — Besiktas

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
49%
1X2
Besiktas
90-minute result: Besiktas
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
58%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
58%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 7 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 94 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 94 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 38% (Weak)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
72 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
49 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
66 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
50 predictions
Total 3.5 36% (Weak)
28 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
83 predictions

Match overview