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Ecuador · Serie A

06 Jul 2026 21:30 UTC

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA vs MUSHUC RUNA

Final 2:3

Mushuc Runa won Last goal: Universidad Catolica

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ C. Angulo — Mushuc Runa

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ronie Carrillo — Mushuc Runa
  2. ⚽ Arnaldo Zambrano — Mushuc Runa
  3. ⚽ M. Díaz — Universidad Catolica
  4. ⚽ Azarías Londoño — Universidad Catolica

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
Universidad Catolica
90-minute result: Mushuc Runa
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
13%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 51% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 99 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 322 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 377 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 84 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
257 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
207 predictions
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
138 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
245 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
320 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
359 predictions

Match overview