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Ecuador · Serie A

08 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC

AUCAS vs GUAYAQUIL CITY

Final 1:0

Aucas won Last goal: Aucas

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Luis Arroyo — Aucas

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
Guayaquil City
90-minute result: Aucas
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 58 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 324 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 371 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 62 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
254 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
203 predictions
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
235 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
132 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
314 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
353 predictions

Match overview