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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Final Stage

01 Jul 2026 20:00 UTC

BELGIUM vs SENEGAL

Final 3:2

Top match Belgium advanced Last goal: Belgium

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Habib Diarra — Senegal

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ismaïla Sarr · assist Moussa Niakhaté — Senegal
  2. ⚽ Romelu Lukaku · assist Thomas Meunier — Belgium
  3. ⚽ Youri Tielemans · assist Leandro Trossard — Belgium

Extra time

  1. ⚽ Youri Tielemans (penalty) — Belgium

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Belgium
90-minute result: Draw
Advanced: Belgium
Lucky hit
44%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
58%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
33%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2 (90 min)

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 69% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 72 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 74 completed matches.

1X2 57% (Good)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 16% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 33% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 57% (Good)
63 predictions
Both teams to score 68% (Strong)
40 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
60 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
37 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
15 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
66 predictions

Match overview