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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Final Stage

29 Jun 2026 17:00 UTC

BRAZIL vs JAPAN

Final 2:1

Brazil won Last goal: Brazil

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Kaishu Sano — Japan

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Casemiro · assist Gabriel Magalhães — Brazil
  2. ⚽ Gabriel Martinelli · assist Bruno Guimarães — Brazil

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
48%
1X2
Japan
90-minute result: Brazil
Lucky hit
38%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
58%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
35%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
Big miss
33%
Score
1:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 0% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 2 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 67 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 69 completed matches.

1X2 59% (Good)
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 17% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 83% (Strong)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 33% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 59% (Good)
59 predictions
Both teams to score 65% (Good)
37 predictions
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
55 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
32 predictions
Total 3.5 55% (Average)
11 predictions
Total 4.5 17% (Weak)
6 predictions

Match overview