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Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion Promotion Playoff

20 Jun 2026 16:30 UTC

CELTA FORTUNA vs PONFERRADINA

Final 4:1

Celta Fortuna won Last goal: Celta Fortuna

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Hugo González — Celta Fortuna
  2. ⚽ Borja Valle — Ponferradina

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Hugo González (penalty) — Celta Fortuna
  2. ⚽ Bernard Somuah — Celta Fortuna
  3. ⚽ Adrià Capdevila — Celta Fortuna
  4. 🟥 Jose Luis Cortes (straight red) — Ponferradina

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Celta Fortuna
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 284 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 780 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 756 completed matches.

1X2 30% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 77 past matches

1X2 22% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 30% (Weak)
229 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
390 predictions
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
521 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
457 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
626 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
702 predictions

Match overview