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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. B

30 May 2026 18:00 UTC

DANUBIO vs CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO

Final 1:2

Club Atletico Progreso won Last goal: Club Atletico Progreso

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Joaquín Pereyra — Danubio

2nd half

⚽ Gastón Silva — Club Atletico Progreso
⚽ Gary Silva — Club Atletico Progreso

Model predictions were

39%

1X2

Danubio

Result: Club Atletico Progreso

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 74 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 241 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 51% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 57 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 53% (Average)

Total 3.5 70% (Strong)

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)

172 predictions

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

104 predictions

Total 1.5 67% (Strong)

149 predictions

Total 2.5 43% (Weak)

88 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

217 predictions

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

236 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Danubio vs Club Atletico Progreso after full time. The match ended 1-2 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. B. The model leaned toward Danubio with a weak indicator (39.3%).

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 91.3% of matches across a sample of 241 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 50.9% in a sample of 57 team involvements.

Across settled lines, market signals aligned strongly with the final outcome. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) came in as a clear statistical edge and held up in the final outcome. Over 2.5 goals (44.6%) was identified as a marginal edge and was correctly identified, both teams to score (48.2%) was correctly identified.

The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.