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Estonia · Meistriliiga

30 May 2026 11:30 UTC

PARNU JK VAPRUS vs NOMME JK KALJU

Final 3:1

Parnu JK Vaprus won Last goal: Parnu JK Vaprus

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Henri Vaelja (penalty) — Parnu JK Vaprus

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Henri Vaelja — Parnu JK Vaprus
  2. ⚽ Mattias Maennilaan (penalty) — Nomme JK Kalju
  3. ⚽ Virgo Vallik — Parnu JK Vaprus

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
51%
1X2
Parnu JK Vaprus
90-minute result: Parnu JK Vaprus
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
18%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 65% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 51 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 13% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 170 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 147 completed matches.

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 57 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 54% (Average)
113 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
54 predictions
Total 1.5 22% (Weak)
27 predictions
Total 2.5 37% (Weak)
65 predictions
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
101 predictions
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
125 predictions

Match overview