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England · League One · League One Playoff

24 May 2026 12:00 UTC

BOLTON vs STOCKPORT COUNTY

Final 4:1

Top match Bolton won Last goal: Bolton

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ruben Rodrigues — Bolton
  2. ⚽ Adama Sidibeh · assist Odin Bailey — Stockport County

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Kyle Wootton (own goal) — Bolton
  2. ⚽ Sam Dalby · assist John McAtee — Bolton
  3. 🟥 Josh Dacres-Cogley (straight red) — Stockport County
  4. ⚽ Ruben Rodrigues (penalty) — Bolton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Bolton
90-minute result: Bolton
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 143 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 539 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 544 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 92 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
391 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
326 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
438 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
266 predictions
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
410 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
491 predictions

Match overview