← Back to matches

England · League One · League One Playoff

14 May 2026 19:00 UTC

BRADFORD vs BOLTON

Final 0:1

Top match Bolton won Last goal: Bolton

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Xavier Simons — Bolton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Favorite
51%
1X2
Bradford
90-minute result: Bolton
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
5%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
4:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 54% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 85 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 538 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 543 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 89 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 45% (Weak)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
390 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
325 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
437 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
265 predictions
Total 3.5 28% (Weak)
133 predictions
Total 4.5 17% (Weak)
52 predictions

Match overview