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Colombia · Categoria Primera A · Playoff Apertura finalstage

23 May 2026 23:00 UTC

ATLETICO NACIONAL vs TOLIMA

Final 3:1

Atletico Nacional won Last goal: Tolima

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jorman Campuzano — Atletico Nacional
  2. ⚽ Andrés Román — Atletico Nacional
  3. ⚽ Edwin Cardona — Atletico Nacional
  4. ⚽ Adrian Parra — Tolima

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Atletico Nacional
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 34% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 167 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 435 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 404 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 87 past matches

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 35% (Weak)
122 predictions
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
197 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
287 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
162 predictions
Total 3.5 15% (Weak)
67 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
380 predictions

Match overview