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Colombia · Categoria Primera A · Playoff Apertura finalstage

14 May 2026 01:15 UTC

JUNIOR FC vs ONCE CALDAS

Final 2:2

Draw Last goal: Once Caldas

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Luis Gomez — Once Caldas
  2. ⚽ Lucas Monzón — Junior FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Cristian Barrios — Junior FC
  2. ⚽ Lucas Monzón (own goal) — Once Caldas
  3. 🟥 Jesús Rivas (2nd yellow) — Junior FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Favorite
51%
1X2
Junior FC
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 59% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 125 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 432 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 398 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 83 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)
277 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
203 predictions
Total 1.5 39% (Weak)
114 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
237 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
331 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
374 predictions

Match overview