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Colombia · Categoria Primera A · Playoff Apertura finalstage

13 May 2026 23:00 UTC

DEPORTIVO PASTO vs TOLIMA

Final 0:2

Tolima won Last goal: Tolima

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jersson González — Tolima

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Andrey Estupinan (straight red) — Deportivo Pasto
  2. ⚽ Juan Pablo Torres — Tolima

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Favorite
51%
1X2
Deportivo Pasto
90-minute result: Tolima
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 60% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 124 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 430 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 398 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 80 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)
277 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
203 predictions
Total 1.5 39% (Weak)
114 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
237 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
331 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
374 predictions

Match overview