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Italy · Serie B · Serie B Promotion Playoff

17 May 2026 18:00 UTC

CATANZARO vs PALERMO

Final 3:0

Catanzaro won Last goal: Catanzaro

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Pietro Iemmello — Catanzaro
  2. ⚽ Pietro Iemmello — Catanzaro
  3. ⚽ Mattia Liberali — Catanzaro

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Palermo
90-minute result: Catanzaro
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 39% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 31 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 382 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 376 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 75 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
260 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
163 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
276 predictions
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
213 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
304 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
351 predictions

Match overview