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Portugal · Liga 3 · Liga 3 Promotion Group

16 May 2026 15:30 UTC

ACADEMICA vs TROFENSE

Final 3:0

Academica won Last goal: Academica

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Leandro Silva (penalty) — Academica
  2. ⚽ Marco Baixinho — Academica

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Marcos Paulo — Academica

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Trofense
90-minute result: Academica
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 50 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 289 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
210 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
142 predictions
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
86 predictions
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
173 predictions
Total 3.5 84% (Strong)
239 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
271 predictions

Match overview