← Back to matches

Portugal · Liga 3 · Liga 3 Promotion Group

10 May 2026 18:30 UTC

VARZIM vs CF OS BELENENSES

Final 1:2

CF Os Belenenses won Last goal: Varzim

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bruninho — CF Os Belenenses

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Duda — CF Os Belenenses
  2. ⚽ Pedro Clemente — Varzim

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Varzim
90-minute result: CF Os Belenenses
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
37%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 96 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 290 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 287 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 59 past matches

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
208 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
146 predictions
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
201 predictions
Total 2.5 38% (Weak)
114 predictions
Total 3.5 84% (Strong)
237 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
269 predictions

Match overview